SNB to cut rates by 25bp today, but it's a close call

Today, we expect the SNB to cut policy rates by 25bp to 1.00%, but stress that it is a close call between 25bp and 50bp as inflation has underperformed the SNB's forecast, the real trade-weighted CHF has appreciated notably, and GDP has been higher than expected. Jordan has previously stated that the neutral nominal rate is around 1.00% and we think they will be satisfied with a more gradual pace rather than going directly to below the neutral nominal rate.

In the US, we have speeches from both Powell (15.20 CET), Williams, and Kashkari while in the euro area Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 15.30 CET.